ACGL

Arch Capital Group Ltd.

Financial Services · $33.1B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$93.60

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$71.87

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$28.75

buy price

Overpriced

ACGL is Overpriced: at $93.60 it trades 30% above its fair value of $71.87. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $28.75, 69% below today's price. Business quality is strong: 4 of 5 key numbers clear the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Buffett Normalized. A profitable, growing business, so we project its earnings 10 years ahead and work out what that is worth today.

Business quality

4 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth10.4% a year✓
Equity per share growth13.4% a year✓
Sales growth9.8% a year✗
Free cash flow growth11.0% a year✓
Return on invested capital12.0%✓

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Superinvestors

None of the investors we track holds ACGL right now. In Q2 2026, 1 sold out. Who we track

Moves in Q2 2026

Sold out: John Armitage

Insider activity

Since Jun 11, 2026: no open-market purchases, 1 sale worth $1.1M and 2 other filings (stock awards, tax withholding and similar). Why purchases matter

Sales

Other filings

About Arch Capital Group Ltd.

Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted…

Insurance - Diversified

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works