ALRM

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

Technology · $2.6B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$54.68

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$34.08

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$13.63

buy price

Overpriced

ALRM is Overpriced: at $54.68 it trades 60% above its fair value of $34.08. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $13.63, 75% below today's price. Business quality is strong: 4 of 5 key numbers clear the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Free Cash Flow. Sales grew 6% a year over the last 3 years, below the 15% we look for in a fast grower, so we value it on its free cash flow instead of an earnings forecast.

Business quality

4 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth22.7% a year✓
Equity per share growth16.9% a year✓
Sales growth21.7% a year✓
Free cash flow growth21.2% a year✓
Return on invested capital4.8%✗

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Superinvestors

1 of the investors we track holds ALRM. In Q2 2026, 1 added. Who we track

Moves in Q2 2026

Added: Howard Marks

Insider activity

Since Jul 2, 2026: no open-market purchases, 3 sales worth $3.2M and 2 other filings (stock awards, tax withholding and similar). Why purchases matter

Sales

Other filings

About Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. delivers a comprehensive suite of cloud-enabled services tailored for intelligent residential and commercial properties, serving clients across the United States and internationally. The company's operations are divided into two primary divisions: Alarm.com and Other. Its core offerings include interactive security platforms, empowering users to manage and oversee their security systems…

Software - Application

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works