HCC

Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

Energy · $5.5B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$89.35

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$19.47

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$7.79

buy price

Overpriced

HCC is Overpriced: at $89.35 it trades 359% above its fair value of $19.47. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $7.79, 91% below today's price. Business quality is mixed: 2 of 5 key numbers clear the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Buffett Normalized. A profitable, growing business, so we project its earnings 10 years ahead and work out what that is worth today.

Business quality

2 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth-24.3% a year✗
Equity per share growth20.0% a year✓
Sales growth8.3% a year✗
Free cash flow growth-7.6% a year✗
Return on invested capital10.7%✓

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Superinvestors

3 of the investors we track hold HCC. In Q2 2026, 1 opened a position and 1 trimmed. Who we track

Moves in Q2 2026

New position: First Eagle Investment Management

Trimmed: Third Avenue Management

About Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. specializes in the extraction and international distribution of coking coal, a critical raw material for steel production. The firm operates a pair of underground mines situated in Alabama. Its primary client base consists of blast furnace steel producers, predominantly located across Europe, South America, and Asia. In addition to coal, the company also sells natural gas, which is recovered…

Coal

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works

HCC stock (Warrior Met Coal, Inc.): fair value $19.47, Overpriced — PaybackPrice