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HLP

Hongli Group Inc.

Basic Materials · $180M market cap

Verdict

Share price

$2.55

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$0.687

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$0.275

buy price

Overpriced

HLP is Overpriced: at $2.55 it trades 271% above its fair value of $0.687. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $0.275, 89% below today's price. Business quality is limited: only 1 of 5 key numbers clears the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Buffett Normalized. A profitable, growing business, so we project its earnings 10 years ahead and work out what that is worth today.

Business quality

1 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth—?
Equity per share growth8.1% a year✗
Sales growth10.7% a year✓
Free cash flow growth-8.3% a year✗
Return on invested capital1.3%✗

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About Hongli Group Inc.

Hongli Group Inc., through its affiliated entities, specializes in the engineering, tailoring, production, and distribution of cold roll-formed steel profiles. These precision components are utilized in a variety of machinery and equipment, with a market reach that extends across the People's Republic of China, South Korea, Japan, the United States, and Sweden. The company's products cater to essential sectors such…

Steel

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works