NVS

Novartis AG

Healthcare · $260.7B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$141.00

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$123.75

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$49.50

buy price

Overpriced

NVS is Overpriced: at $141.00 it trades 14% above its fair value of $123.75. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $49.50, 65% below today's price. Business quality is limited: only 1 of 5 key numbers clears the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Owner Earnings. Earnings grow slowly (under 7% a year), but cash flow is steady, so we value it on its cash flow instead of its earnings.

Business quality

1 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth2.3% a year✗
Equity per share growth0.9% a year✗
Sales growth0.5% a year✗
Free cash flow growth3.6% a year✗
Return on invested capital14.2%✓

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Superinvestors

4 of the investors we track hold NVS. In Q2 2026, 1 added and 1 trimmed. Who we track

Moves in Q2 2026

Added: Lee Ainslie

Trimmed: Dodge & Cox Funds

About Novartis AG

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the business of developing, manufacturing, and marketing healthcare products. Its product portfolio is heavily focused on innovative prescription medicines, especially oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and cardiovascular diseases, supplemented by established older brands and a wide range of specialized therapies. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is…

Drug Manufacturers - General

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works