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ZTO

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

Industrials · $15.5B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$19.50

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$20.13

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$8.05

buy price

Fairly Valued

ZTO is Fairly Valued: at $19.50 it's within 3% of its fair value of $20.13. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $8.05, 59% below today's price. Business quality is strong: 4 of 5 key numbers clear the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Free Cash Flow. Sales grew 11% a year over the last 3 years, below the 15% we look for in a fast grower, so we value it on its free cash flow instead of an earnings forecast.

Business quality

4 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth13.0% a year✓
Equity per share growth9.5% a year✗
Sales growth21.8% a year✓
Free cash flow growth31.7% a year✓
Return on invested capital10.5%✓

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Superinvestors

1 of the investors we track holds ZTO. Who we track

Richard Pzena

Pzena Investment Management · as of Q2 2026

$163.9M

7,322,331 shares

About ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is a leading provider of expedited parcel delivery and integrated logistics services throughout the People's Republic of China. The company facilitates shipments for a diverse clientele, including online retailers, traditional businesses, and various other entities requiring swift courier solutions. By the end of 2021, specifically December 31, its operations were supported by a substantial…

Integrated Freight & Logistics

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works