AA
Alcoa CorporationBasic Materials · $11.3B market cap
Verdict
Share price
$41.95
close of Oct 3, 2026
Fair value
$38.09
Sticker Price
Payback Price
$15.23
buy price
AA is Overpriced: at $41.95 it trades 10% above its fair value of $38.09. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $15.23, 64% below today's price. Business quality is limited: only 1 of 5 key numbers clears the 10% bar.
How we valued it
Free Cash Flow. Sales grew 0% a year over the last 3 years, below the 15% we look for in a fast grower, so we value it on its free cash flow instead of an earnings forecast.
Business quality
1 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?
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None of the investors we track holds AA right now. In Q2 2026, 1 sold out. Who we track
Moves in Q2 2026
Sold out: Polen Capital Management
Insider activity
Since Jul 22, 2026: no open-market purchases, 4 sales worth $1.3M and 3 other filings (stock awards, tax withholding and similar). Why purchases matter
Sales
Bacchi Renato
EVP & Chief Commercial Officer · 2026-08-31
Sold
$36K
Jones Tammi A
EVP & CHRO · 2026-08-27
Sold
$791K
Hastings Andrew
EVP & Gen. Counsel · 2026-08-17
Sold
$305K
Reed Matthew T
EVP, Chief Operations Officer · 2026-07-22
Sold
$215K
Other filings
About Alcoa Corporation
Alcoa Corporation stands as a global industrial leader, primarily focused on the production and sale of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Its extensive operations span multiple continents, including North America (United States, Canada), Europe (Spain, Iceland, Norway), South America (Brazil), and Australia, along with other international markets. The company's activities are strategically divided into three…
Aluminum
Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works