AAP

Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · $2.4B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$38.68

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$144.18

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$57.67

buy price

On Sale

AAP is On Sale: at $38.68 it trades 33% below its buy price (Payback Price) of $57.67 and 73% below its fair value of $144.18. Business quality is limited: only 1 of 5 key numbers clears the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Buffett Normalized. A profitable, growing business, so we project its earnings 10 years ahead and work out what that is worth today.

Business quality

1 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth4.0% a year✗
Equity per share growth10.1% a year✓
Sales growth4.1% a year✗
Free cash flow growth3.6% a year✗
Return on invested capital-2.0%✗

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Superinvestors

2 of the investors we track hold AAP. In Q2 2026, 1 added. Who we track

Moves in Q2 2026

Added: Tweedy Browne

About Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. operates as a leading retailer and supplier of a comprehensive array of automotive replacement components, accessories, batteries, and essential maintenance supplies. Its extensive inventory caters to a wide spectrum of vehicles, including domestic and imported passenger cars, vans, sport utility vehicles, and both light and heavy-duty trucks. The company's product offering is broad…

Specialty Retail

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works