ASML

ASML Holding N.V.

Technology · $705.1B market cap

Share price

$1,867.31

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$644.37

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$257.75

buy price

Overpriced

ASML is Overpriced: at $1,867.31 it trades 190% above its fair value of $644.37. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $257.75, 86% below today's price. Business quality is strong: all 5 key numbers clear the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Buffett Normalized. A profitable, growing business, so we project its earnings 10 years ahead and work out what that is worth today.

Business quality

5 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth18.3% a year✓

Equity per share growth12.2% a year✓

Sales growth14.0% a year✓

Free cash flow growth19.4% a year✓

Return on invested capital30.8%✓

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Superinvestors

9 of the investors we track hold ASML. In Q2 2026, 1 added and 2 trimmed. Who we track

Stephen Mandel

Lone Pine Capital · as of Q2 2026

$1.1B

569,174 shares

Valley Forge Capital Management

Valley Forge Capital Management · as of Q2 2026

$340.4M

171,083 shares

Pat Dorsey

Dorsey Asset Management · as of Q2 2026

$259.4M

130,364 shares

David Tepper

Appaloosa Management · as of Q2 2026

$99.5M

50,000 shares

Daniel Loeb

Third Point · as of Q2 2026

$59.6M

30,000 shares

Show all 9 holders

Polen Capital Management

Polen Capital Management · as of Q2 2026

$30.7M

15,427 shares

Wallace Weitz

Weitz Investment Management · as of Q2 2026

$10.9M

5,500 shares

Lee Ainslie

Maverick Capital · as of Q2 2026

$1.9M

980 shares

Triple Frond Partners

Triple Frond Partners · as of Q2 2026

$237K

118,917 shares

Moves in Q2 2026

Added: Daniel Loeb

Trimmed: Stephen Mandel, Lee Ainslie

About ASML Holding N.V.

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various…

Semiconductors

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works

Verdict

How we valued it

Business quality

Superinvestors

About ASML Holding N.V.