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COP

ConocoPhillips

Energy · $152.6B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$126.75

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$153.95

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$61.58

buy price

Undervalued

COP is Undervalued: at $126.75 it trades 18% below its fair value of $153.95. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $61.58, 51% below today's price. Business quality is limited: none of the 5 key numbers clears the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Free Cash Flow Growth. Reported earnings are shrinking, but free cash flow keeps growing, so we value it on cash flow.

Business quality

0 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth-1.3% a year✗
Equity per share growth-1.4% a year✗
Sales growth-7.7% a year✗
Free cash flow growth5.3% a year✗
Return on invested capital8.6%✗

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Superinvestors

5 of the investors we track hold COP. In Q2 2026, 1 trimmed and 1 sold out. Who we track

Bill Nygren

Oakmark Funds · as of Q2 2026

$1.6B

15,178,673 shares

Dodge & Cox Funds

Dodge & Cox Funds · as of Q2 2026

$963.3M

9,266,284 shares

Yacktman Asset Management

Yacktman Asset Management · as of Q2 2026

$167.0M

1,606,025 shares

Tweedy Browne

Tweedy Browne · as of Q2 2026

$3.3M

32,137 shares

Mairs & Power Funds

Mairs & Power Funds · as of Q2 2026

$2.7M

25,845 shares

Moves in Q2 2026

Trimmed: Bill Nygren

Sold out: Steven Check

Insider activity

Since Jun 15, 2026: no open-market purchases, 2 sales worth $3.3M and 4 other filings (stock awards, tax withholding and similar). Why purchases matter

Sales

LUNDQUIST ANDREW D

Senior Vice President · 2026-08-21

Sold

$1.3M

Rose Kelly Brunetti

SVP & General Counsel · 2026-08-20

Sold

$2.0M

Other filings

Kinney Shannon Browning

SVP & General Counsel · 2026-09-01

Award

24,080 shares

JOHNSON KIRK L.

Executive Vice President · 2026-09-01

Award

37,930 shares

Olds Nicholas G

Executive Vice President · 2026-09-01

Award

22,758 shares

NIBLOCK ROBERT A

director · 2026-06-15

Award

322 shares

About ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its primary operations are centered on both conventional and tight oil formations, shale gas, heavy crude, LNG developments, and oil sands projects. The company's…

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works