HLT

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · $70.7B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$319.36

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$179.71

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$71.88

buy price

Overpriced

HLT is Overpriced: at $319.36 it trades 78% above its fair value of $179.71. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $71.88, 77% below today's price. Business quality is limited: only 1 of 5 key numbers clears the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Owner Earnings. Earnings grow slowly (under 7% a year), but cash flow is steady, so we value it on its cash flow instead of its earnings.

Business quality

1 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth6.7% a year✗
Equity per share growth-40.6% a year✗
Sales growth1.9% a year✗
Free cash flow growth7.3% a year✗
Return on invested capital14.9%✓

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Superinvestors

2 of the investors we track hold HLT. In Q2 2026, 1 trimmed and 1 sold out. Who we track

Moves in Q2 2026

Trimmed: Bill Nygren

Sold out: Stephen Mandel

Insider activity

Since Jun 30, 2026: no open-market purchases and 9 other filings (stock awards, tax withholding and similar). Why purchases matter

Other filings

About Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare…

Travel Lodging

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works