NRG

NRG Energy, Inc.

Utilities · $20.3B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$95.23

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$74.47

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$29.79

buy price

Overpriced

NRG is Overpriced: at $95.23 it trades 28% above its fair value of $74.47. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $29.79, 69% below today's price. Business quality is limited: none of the 5 key numbers clears the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Dividend Discount Model. It has paid a dividend for 10+ years in a row, raised it most years, and yields over 2%. For a steady payer like this, the dividend is the best guide to value.

Business quality

0 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth2.9% a year✗
Equity per share growth-5.8% a year✗
Sales growth8.7% a year✗
Free cash flow growth3.3% a year✗
Return on invested capital6.9%✗

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Superinvestors

2 of the investors we track hold NRG. In Q2 2026, 2 sold out. Who we track

Moves in Q2 2026

Sold out: Lee Ainslie, Howard Marks

Insider activity

Since Jun 15, 2026: no open-market purchases, 3 sales worth $4.3M and 17 other filings (stock awards, tax withholding and similar). Why purchases matter

Sales

Other filings

About NRG Energy, Inc.

NRG Energy, Inc., together with its affiliated entities, operates as a comprehensive power utility spanning the United States. Its operations are divided into three main geographical divisions: Texas, East, and West. The company plays a crucial role in generating, distributing, and selling electricity and various related services, serving approximately six million customers across residential, commercial…

Independent Power Producers

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works