NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

Technology · $5.54T market cap

Verdict

Share price

$233.95

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$162.82

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$65.13

buy price

Overpriced

NVDA is Overpriced: at $233.95 it trades 44% above its fair value of $162.82. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $65.13, 72% below today's price. Business quality is strong: all 5 key numbers clear the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Buffett Normalized. A profitable, growing business, so we project its earnings 10 years ahead and work out what that is worth today.

Business quality

5 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth101.6% a year✓
Equity per share growth56.7% a year✓
Sales growth78.5% a year✓
Free cash flow growth87.4% a year✓
Return on invested capital63.2%✓

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Superinvestors

19 of the investors we track hold NVDA. In Q2 2026, 1 opened a position, 2 added, 4 trimmed and 1 sold out. Who we track

Insider activity

Since Jun 16, 2026: no open-market purchases, 19 sales worth $839.0M and 21 other filings (stock awards, tax withholding and similar). Why purchases matter

Sales

Other filings

About NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA Corporation stands as a prominent provider of advanced graphics, computational, and networking solutions, operating across the United States, Taiwan, China, and numerous international markets. Its Graphics division encompasses GeForce GPUs, central to PC gaming and personal computing experiences, along with the GeForce NOW cloud gaming service and its supporting infrastructure, as well as dedicated solutions…

Semiconductors

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works