PKG

Packaging Corporation of America

Consumer Cyclical · $20.7B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$228.54

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$150.12

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$60.05

buy price

Overpriced

PKG is Overpriced: at $228.54 it trades 52% above its fair value of $150.12. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $60.05, 74% below today's price. Business quality is solid: 3 of 5 key numbers clear the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Free Cash Flow. Sales grew 2% a year over the last 3 years, below the 15% we look for in a fast grower, so we value it on its free cash flow instead of an earnings forecast.

Business quality

3 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth11.4% a year✓
Equity per share growth12.3% a year✓
Sales growth8.8% a year✗
Free cash flow growth9.4% a year✗
Return on invested capital10.1%✓

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Superinvestors

1 of the investors we track holds PKG. In Q2 2026, 1 added. Who we track

Moves in Q2 2026

Added: Harry Burn

Insider activity

Since Aug 3, 2026: no open-market purchases and 4 sales worth $10.2M. Why purchases matter

Sales

About Packaging Corporation of America

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the production and sale of containerboard and corrugated packaging materials. Its operations are organized into two primary divisions: Packaging and Paper. The Packaging division offers an extensive array of containerboard and corrugated solutions. These encompass conventional shipping containers designed for safeguarding and…

Packaging & Containers

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works