SW

Smurfit Westrock plc

Consumer Cyclical · $23.3B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$42.54

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$23.36

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$9.34

buy price

Overpriced

SW is Overpriced: at $42.54 it trades 82% above its fair value of $23.36. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $9.34, 78% below today's price. Business quality is limited: only 1 of 5 key numbers clears the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Buffett Normalized. A profitable, growing business, so we project its earnings 10 years ahead and work out what that is worth today.

Business quality

1 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth10.8% a year✓
Equity per share growth6.4% a year✗
Sales growth1.6% a year✗
Free cash flow growth6.7% a year✗
Return on invested capital4.4%✗

Follow SW

Get notified when it reaches its buy price of $9.34. Free.

Create a free account

Superinvestors

2 of the investors we track hold SW. In Q2 2026, 1 added. Who we track

Moves in Q2 2026

Added: Harry Burn

Insider activity

Since Aug 14, 2026: no open-market purchases and 7 other filings (stock awards, tax withholding and similar). Why purchases matter

Other filings

About Smurfit Westrock plc

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic…

Packaging & Containers

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works