SHOP

Shopify Inc.

Technology · $193.0B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$151.39

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$37.60

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$15.04

buy price

Overpriced

SHOP is Overpriced: at $151.39 it trades 303% above its fair value of $37.60. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $15.04, 90% below today's price. Business quality is solid: 3 of 5 key numbers clear the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Earnings Power. Our 10-year earnings projection came out at less than a fifth of the share price, too far from reality to publish. So we use a simpler measure: today's normal earnings at the price-to-earnings ratio it has typically traded at.

Business quality

3 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth8.3% a year✗
Equity per share growth28.1% a year✓
Sales growth38.8% a year✓
Free cash flow growth40.9% a year✓
Return on invested capital2.2%✗

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Superinvestors

3 of the investors we track hold SHOP. In Q2 2026, 1 added and 1 trimmed. Who we track

Moves in Q2 2026

Added: Henry Ellenbogen

Trimmed: Polen Capital Management

About Shopify Inc.

Shopify Inc. functions as a premier commerce technology company, providing an extensive platform and associated services to empower businesses worldwide. Its reach extends across Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific region, and Latin America. The company's robust platform equips merchants to effectively display, organize, market, and sell their merchandise through a multitude…

Software - Application

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works