TOL
Toll Brothers, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · $12.7B market cap
Verdict
Share price
$136.61
close of Oct 3, 2026
Fair value
$68.12
Sticker Price
Payback Price
$27.25
buy price
TOL is Overpriced: at $136.61 it trades 101% above its fair value of $68.12. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $27.25, 80% below today's price. Business quality is solid: 3 of 5 key numbers clear the 10% bar.
How we valued it
Free Cash Flow. Sales grew 2% a year over the last 3 years, below the 15% we look for in a fast grower, so we value it on its free cash flow instead of an earnings forecast.
Business quality
3 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?
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4 of the investors we track hold TOL. In Q2 2026, 1 opened a position and 1 added. Who we track
Greenhaven Associates
Greenhaven Associates · as of Q2 2026
$927.6M
5,630,109 shares
Viking Global Investors
Viking Global Investors · as of Q2 2026
$18.1M
109,856 shares
David Rolfe
Wedgewood Partners · as of Q2 2026
$14.9M
90,562 shares
First Eagle Investment Management
First Eagle Investment Management · as of Q2 2026
$989K
6,000 shares
Insider activity
Since Jun 18, 2026: no open-market purchases, 2 sales worth $13.3M and 1 other filing (stock awards, tax withholding and similar). Why purchases matter
Sales
Yearley Douglas C. Jr.
Executive Chairman · 2026-06-18
Sold
$12.2M
Parahus Robert
President & COO · 2026-06-18
Sold
$1.1M
Other filings
About Toll Brothers, Inc.
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stands as a prominent luxury homebuilder operating across the United States. The company, along with its various divisions, specializes in the design, construction, marketing, sale, and financing of upscale detached and attached residences within master-planned communities. Its operations are structured into two main divisions: Traditional Home Building and City Living. The latter…
Residential Construction
Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works