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YMM

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.

Technology · $8.5B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$8.17

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$2.90

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$1.16

buy price

Overpriced

YMM is Overpriced: at $8.17 it trades 181% above its fair value of $2.90. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $1.16, 86% below today's price. Business quality is solid: 3 of 5 key numbers clear the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Buffett Normalized. A profitable, growing business, so we project its earnings 10 years ahead and work out what that is worth today.

Business quality

3 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth76.7% a year✓
Equity per share growth7.2% a year✗
Sales growth34.6% a year✓
Free cash flow growth53.7% a year✓
Return on invested capital5.6%✗

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Superinvestors

None of the investors we track holds YMM right now. In Q1 2026, 1 sold out. Who we track

Moves in Q1 2026

Sold out: Howard Marks

About Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., along with its subsidiaries, operates a prominent digital logistics platform across the People's Republic of China. This platform's core purpose is to seamlessly connect cargo owners (shippers) with truck drivers, streamlining the transportation of goods regardless of distance, weight, or type. The company offers essential services like freight posting, carrier matching, and brokerage…

Software - Application

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works