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BLBD

Blue Bird Corporation

Consumer Cyclical · $1.8B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$56.53

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$48.14

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$19.25

buy price

Overpriced

BLBD is Overpriced: at $56.53 it trades 17% above its fair value of $48.14. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $19.25, 66% below today's price. Business quality is strong: 4 of 5 key numbers clear the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Buffett Normalized. A profitable, growing business, so we project its earnings 10 years ahead and work out what that is worth today.

Business quality

4 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth22.0% a year✓
Equity per share growth154.0% a year✓
Sales growth4.6% a year✗
Free cash flow growth18.1% a year✓
Return on invested capital28.5%✓

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Insider activity

Since Aug 12, 2026: 1 open-market purchase worth $23K. Why purchases matter

Purchases

Thau Daniel Mark

director · 2026-08-12

Bought

$23K

About Blue Bird Corporation

Blue Bird Corporation specializes in the design, engineering, production, and distribution of school buses and related components. The company serves customers across the United States, Canada, and international markets, structured into two primary divisions: Bus and Parts. Its product lineup includes Type C, Type D, and various specialty buses, alongside a strong emphasis on alternative fuel solutions such as…

Auto - Manufacturers

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works