HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · $2.6B market cap
Verdict
Share price
$24.55
close of Oct 3, 2026
Fair value
$21.98
Sticker Price
Payback Price
$8.79
buy price
HOG is Overpriced: at $24.55 it trades 12% above its fair value of $21.98. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $8.79, 64% below today's price. Business quality is limited: none of the 5 key numbers clears the 10% bar.
How we valued it
Owner Earnings. Earnings have been shrinking, but the business still generates cash, so we value it on its cash flow instead of its earnings.
Business quality
0 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?
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2 of the investors we track hold HOG. In Q1 2026, 1 opened a position. Who we track
Third Avenue Management
Third Avenue Management · as of Q2 2026
$36.2M
1,480,880 shares
Mairs & Power Funds
Mairs & Power Funds · as of Q2 2026
$342K
14,000 shares
Moves in Q1 2026
New position: Third Avenue Management
Insider activity
Since Jul 1, 2026: 3 open-market purchases worth $1.4M, 3 sales worth $119K and 1 other filing (stock awards, tax withholding and similar). Why purchases matter
Purchases
Littleton Gayle
CLO, CCO, CAO & Corp Sec · 2026-08-11
Bought
$198K
Starrs Artie
President & CEO · 2026-08-10
Bought
$259K
NOVA DANIEL J
director · 2026-07-31
Bought
$983K
Sales
Root Jonathan R
CFO and CCO · 2026-09-01
Sold
$43K
Root Jonathan R
CFO and CCO · 2026-08-03
Sold
$39K
Root Jonathan R
CFO and CCO · 2026-07-01
Sold
$38K
Other filings
About Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Harley-Davidson, Inc., publicly traded under the symbol HOG, is fundamentally a manufacturer and seller of motorcycles. The company's operations are divided into two primary divisions: Motorcycle Products and Related Offerings, and Financial Services. The Motorcycle Products and Related Offerings segment focuses on the design, production, and worldwide distribution of Harley-Davidson motorcycles, encompassing…
Auto - Manufacturers
Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works