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CAKE

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

Consumer Cyclical · $4.8B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$109.65

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$80.32

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$32.13

buy price

Overpriced

CAKE is Overpriced: at $109.65 it trades 37% above its fair value of $80.32. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $32.13, 71% below today's price. Business quality is limited: none of the 5 key numbers clears the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Owner Earnings. Earnings grow slowly (under 7% a year), but cash flow is steady, so we value it on its cash flow instead of its earnings.

Business quality

0 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth3.6% a year✗
Equity per share growth1.4% a year✗
Sales growth5.2% a year✗
Free cash flow growth0.1% a year✗
Return on invested capital5.8%✗

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Superinvestors

2 of the investors we track hold CAKE. In Q2 2026, 1 added and 1 sold out. Who we track

First Eagle Investment Management

First Eagle Investment Management · as of Q2 2026

$10.6M

133,591 shares

Polen Capital Management

Polen Capital Management · as of Q2 2026

$2.6M

33,297 shares

Moves in Q2 2026

Added: Polen Capital Management

Sold out: Howard Marks

Insider activity

Since Mar 12, 2018: 1 open-market purchase worth $25K, 12 sales worth $22.3M and 5 other filings (stock awards, tax withholding and similar). Why purchases matter

Purchases

Ames Edie A

director · 2018-03-12

Bought

$25K

Sales

Meyer Janice L.

director · 2026-08-17

Sold

$214K

Ames Edie A

director · 2026-08-10

Sold

$321K

Gordon David M

PRESIDENT · 2026-08-10

Sold

$1.7M

Gordon David M

PRESIDENT · 2026-08-10

Sold

$1.9M

OVERTON DAVID

CHAIRMAN AND C.E.O. · 2026-08-05

Sold

$10.0M

Show all 12 sales

CAPPELLO ALEXANDER L

director · 2026-08-04

Sold

$7K

CAPPELLO ALEXANDER L

director · 2026-08-03

Sold

$6K

May Scarlett

EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL · 2026-07-31

Sold

$819K

CAPPELLO ALEXANDER L

director · 2026-07-31

Sold

$10K

Clark Matthew Eliot

EXEC VP, CFO · 2026-07-30

Sold

$6.8M

Hanscom Ashley W

PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER · 2026-07-30

Sold

$350K

CAPPELLO ALEXANDER L

director · 2026-07-30

Sold

$213K

Other filings

KRANSDORF JEROME I

director · 2026-09-01

G-Gift

200 shares

KRANSDORF JEROME I

director · 2026-08-26

G-Gift

800 shares

Gordon David M

PRESIDENT · 2026-08-10

Option exercise

$443K

Gordon David M

PRESIDENT · 2026-08-10

Option exercise

$203K

Clark Matthew Eliot

EXEC VP, CFO · 2026-07-30

Option exercise

$2.8M

About The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated primarily operates restaurants. The company also maintains two bakeries that produce its signature cheesecakes and other baked goods. These products are distributed to its own restaurant network, international licensees, external foodservice operators, third-party bakery customers, retailers, and distributors. The Cheesecake Factory operates 306 restaurants across the United…

Restaurants

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works