GEO
The GEO Group, Inc.Industrials · $4.2B market cap
Verdict
Share price
$31.36
close of Oct 3, 2026
Fair value
$13.97
Sticker Price
Payback Price
$5.59
buy price
GEO is Overpriced: at $31.36 it trades 124% above its fair value of $13.97. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $5.59, 82% below today's price. Business quality is limited: only 1 of 5 key numbers clears the 10% bar.
How we valued it
Buffett Normalized. A profitable, growing business, so we project its earnings 10 years ahead and work out what that is worth today.
Business quality
1 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?
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Since Jun 4, 2026: no open-market purchases, 3 sales worth $650K and 1 other filing (stock awards, tax withholding and similar). Why purchases matter
Sales
Brack Ronald A.
See Remarks · 2026-08-21
Sold
$224K
Albence Matthew
Senior VP, Client Relations · 2026-08-20
Sold
$317K
Koren Lindsay L.
director · 2026-08-13
Sold
$110K
Other filings
About The GEO Group, Inc.
The GEO Group, Inc. is dedicated to the operation, leasing, and ownership of secure correctional centers, administrative processing hubs, and community reentry facilities situated in the United States, Australia, and South Africa. The company's operations are segmented into four main areas: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. GEO Group…
Security & Protection Services
Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works