MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Energy · $115.0B market cap

Verdict

Share price

$422.33

close of Oct 3, 2026

Fair value

$119.34

Sticker Price

Payback Price

$47.74

buy price

Overpriced

MPC is Overpriced: at $422.33 it trades 254% above its fair value of $119.34. Its buy price (Payback Price) is $47.74, 89% below today's price. Business quality is mixed: 2 of 5 key numbers clear the 10% bar.

How we valued it

Buffett Normalized. A profitable, growing business, so we project its earnings 10 years ahead and work out what that is worth today.

Business quality

2 of 5 clear the 10% bar. What are the Big Five?

Earnings per share growth4.5% a year✗
Equity per share growth10.6% a year✓
Sales growth5.1% a year✗
Free cash flow growth12.8% a year✓
Return on invested capital9.7%✗

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Superinvestors

4 of the investors we track hold MPC. In Q2 2026, 1 trimmed. Who we track

Moves in Q2 2026

Trimmed: Bill Nygren

Insider activity

Since Aug 3, 2026: no open-market purchases, 6 sales worth $5.5M and 3 other filings (stock awards, tax withholding and similar). Why purchases matter

Sales

Other filings

About Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States. Its business is bifurcated into two main divisions: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment is responsible for processing crude oil and various other raw materials at its refineries, strategically located in the U.S. Gulf…

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Fair value and Payback Price are estimates from the company's reported financials, not investment advice. Prices as of the close of Oct 3, 2026. How the Payback Price works